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Premier League 2026-27

100 matches played, 280 remaining · updated November 11, 2026

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Today’s digest

The day’s Premier League news, verified and curated — the news hub keeps every past digest.

Manchester United open talks with Mauricio Pochettino to replace Michael CarrickUnited are 18th and have won one of 10 league games, with a managerial change expected within 48 hours. — BBC Sport
Dominik Szoboszlai's Hungary availability decision 'almost certainly' to come at the last minuteLiverpool, now fourth, must wait for a last-minute call on their captain's knee during the current international window. — BBC Sport

Upcoming fixtures

10 matches across the next gameweek. The bar is the win / draw / win split, xG the expected goals per side, and the likely score the model's best guess at the result, with its probability.

Gameweek 11Nov 21 – Nov 2310 matches

Date	Home		Away	Home win · Draw · Away win	xG	Likely score
Nov 21	Manchester City	vs	Fulham	67% 19% 14%	2.39 – 0.78	2–0(11%)

Nov 21	Aston Villa	vs	Sunderland	55% 24% 21%	1.89 – 0.99	1–0(10%)

Nov 21	Bournemouth	vs	Nottingham Forest	47% 27% 26%	1.58 – 1.10	1–0(10%)

Nov 21	Chelsea	vs	Leeds United	52% 25% 23%	1.83 – 1.06	2–1(9%)

Nov 21	Coventry City	vs	Crystal Palace	39% 27% 34%	1.35 – 1.34	1–0(9%)

Nov 21	Tottenham	vs	Ipswich Town	61% 22% 17%	2.02 – 1.08	2–1(10%)

Nov 21	Newcastle United	vs	Arsenal	17% 23% 60%	0.91 – 1.96	0–2(11%)

Nov 22	Hull City	vs	Brighton	15% 21% 63%	0.86 – 2.12	0–2(11%)

Nov 22	Liverpool	vs	Manchester United	54% 24% 22%	1.74 – 1.10	2–1(10%)

Nov 23	Brentford	vs	Everton	48% 26% 26%	1.58 – 0.94	1–0(11%)

Featured match

Coventry host Palace in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Sky Blues scrapping to stay up at a 66% relegation risk, the Eagles scrapping to stay up at a 40% relegation risk. In form, the hosts have lost 3 of their last five and the visitors have lost 4 of their last five. The model leans toward the Sky Blues (39% home win, 27% draw, 34% away), with 1–0 the likeliest scoreline at 9%.

Gameweek 11 · 2026-11-21

Coventry

17th9 ptsxG 1.35

FormLWLLW

Palace

20th7 ptsxG 1.34

FormLLLLW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	7.3%	8.0%	5.7%	2.6%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
1	9.1%	12.7%	7.7%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
2	6.6%	8.9%	5.5%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
3	3.0%	4.0%	2.7%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Coventry win

39.2%

Draw

26.7%

Palace win

34.1%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 4 times in the Premier League era — Coventry 2, draws 1, Palace 1 — with Coventry 0–1–1 as hosts.

Featured match

Hull host Brighton in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Tigers scrapping to stay up at a 56% relegation risk, Albion chasing the title at a 20% shot. In form, the visitors come in on the front foot, 4 wins from their last five. The model leans toward Albion (15% home win, 21% draw, 63% away), with 0–2 the likeliest scoreline at 11%.

Gameweek 11 · 2026-11-21

Hull

13th11 ptsxG 0.86

FormLDDLD

Brighton

2nd22 ptsxG 2.12

FormWWLWW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	5.8%	10.0%	11.0%	7.8%	4.1%	1.7%	0.8%
1	4.4%	10.2%	9.4%	6.6%	3.5%	1.5%	0.7%
2	2.1%	4.5%	4.4%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%	0.3%
3	0.6%	1.3%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Hull win

15.4%

Draw

21.4%

Brighton win

63.2%

First meeting this season

Featured match

Tottenham host Ipswich in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Lilywhites fighting for a Champions League place (14% qualifying), Town scrapping to stay up at a 43% relegation risk. In form, the hosts arrive in good nick, with 3 wins from their last five. The model leans toward the Lilywhites (61% home win, 22% draw, 17% away), with 2–1 the likeliest scoreline at 10%.

Gameweek 11 · 2026-11-21

Tottenham

11th12 ptsxG 2.02

FormLWWWD

Ipswich

14th11 ptsxG 1.08

FormLDDLW

Scoreline probabilities

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	4.9%	4.0%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
1	9.0%	10.1%	4.8%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
2	9.6%	10.3%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
3	6.4%	6.9%	3.7%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
4	3.2%	3.5%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
5	1.3%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Match outcome

Tottenham win

60.8%

Draw

21.7%

Ipswich win

17.5%

First meeting this season

The clubs have met 10 times in the Premier League era — Tottenham 4, draws 2, Ipswich 4 — with Tottenham 2–1–2 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Ipswich’s 1-2 win in this fixture in November 2024, a 10% chance on the day.

Projected final table

Title (1st) Champions League (top 5) Europa League (6th) Conference League (7th) Relegation

England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th slots down one place.

	Team	E[Pts]	5–95%	Title	UCL	UEL	UECL	Releg
1	Arsenal	83.0	72–94	67.8%67.8%	99.8%99.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Brighton and Hove Albion	75.7	64–87	20.2%20.2%	97.6%97.6%	1.4%1.4%	0.6%0.6%	0.0%
3	Manchester City	72.2	60–84	9.8%9.8%	92.4%92.4%	3.6%3.6%	1.8%1.8%	0.0%
4	Liverpool	65.4	54–77	1.3%1.3%	70.4%70.4%	11.3%11.3%	7.6%7.6%	0.0%
5	Chelsea	60.6	47–74	0.7%0.7%	45.4%45.4%	13.2%13.2%	10.7%10.7%	0.1%
6	Brentford	56.8	46–68	0.1%	23.3%23.3%	15.3%15.3%	14.0%14.0%	0.3%
7	AFC Bournemouth	55.6	45–67	0.0%	18.1%18.1%	13.0%13.0%	13.3%13.3%	0.3%
8	Aston Villa	54.8	42–67	0.1%	17.7%17.7%	10.9%10.9%	11.2%11.2%	1.1%1.1%
9	Tottenham Hotspur	53.8	41–66	0.1%	14.2%14.2%	10.0%10.0%	11.7%11.7%	1.2%1.2%
10	Leeds United	53.1	42–64	0.0%	10.5%10.5%	8.9%8.9%	11.1%11.1%	0.8%0.8%
11	Everton	51.2	40–62	0.0%	6.4%6.4%	6.0%6.0%	7.8%7.8%	1.6%1.6%
12	Manchester United	46.6	35–58	0.0%	1.6%1.6%	2.5%2.5%	3.5%3.5%	6.6%6.6%
13	Newcastle United	44.9	33–57	0.0%	1.1%1.1%	1.7%1.7%	2.5%2.5%	11.9%11.9%
14	Nottingham Forest	43.6	32–55	0.0%	0.7%0.7%	0.9%0.9%	1.9%1.9%	14.7%14.7%
15	Fulham	41.6	31–53	0.0%	0.3%	0.5%	1.1%1.1%	21.1%21.1%
16	Sunderland	39.2	29–50	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%	34.8%34.8%
17	Crystal Palace	38.4	28–50	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	40.5%40.5%
18	Ipswich Town	37.9	27–50	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	43.4%43.4%
19	Hull City	35.7	25–47	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	55.9%55.9%
20	Coventry City	34.3	24–46	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	65.6%65.6%

Race tracker

How each race has moved. Hover a line to follow one club; expand a card for the full field.

Title race

top 5 of 7 in the race

Champions League

top 5 of 13 in the race

Relegation battle

top 5 of 15 in the race

Position probability heatmap

Chance of each final position, teams sorted by expected points. Cells are percentages; blanks are under 0.5%.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Arsenal	68	22	8	2	0
Brighton	20	41	24	9	4	1	1
Man City	10	25	34	16	8	4	2	1	1
Liverpool	1	7	17	27	18	11	8	5	2	2	1
Chelsea	1	4	8	16	17	13	11	9	7	5	3	2	2	1	1	0
Brentford		1	3	7	13	15	14	13	10	8	6	4	2	2	1	1
Bournemouth			2	6	10	13	13	13	12	9	8	5	4	2	1	1
Aston Villa		1	2	6	9	11	11	12	11	9	8	6	5	3	2	2	1	1
Tottenham			2	4	8	10	12	11	11	10	9	7	6	4	2	2	1	1
Leeds			1	3	6	9	11	11	12	12	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1
Everton			1	2	4	6	8	10	12	12	11	10	8	6	5	3	2	1
Man United					1	2	4	5	7	9	11	12	11	11	8	6	5	3	2	1
Newcastle					1	2	2	4	5	7	9	10	11	11	10	9	7	6	4	2
Forest					1	1	2	3	4	6	7	10	11	11	11	10	9	7	5	3
Fulham							1	2	2	4	6	7	9	11	12	12	11	10	7	4
Sunderland								1	1	2	4	5	6	9	11	13	13	14	12	9
Palace								1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	13	14	14	13
Ipswich								1	1	1	3	4	5	7	9	11	13	14	15	15
Hull									1	1	2	2	4	5	7	10	12	15	19	22
Coventry											1	2	3	4	6	8	10	15	20	31

Golden boot

Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is the goals still expected over the remaining fixtures; "Share" is the player's share of his club's goals. Bar length compares to the projected leader.

	Player	Team	Goals	+rem	Proj total	Share	A
1	Haaland	Manchester City	9	+20.3	29.3	39%	0
2	Isak	Liverpool	7	+14.3	21.3	30%	0
3	N.Jackson	Aston Villa	6	+11.3	17.3	26%	1
4	Barry	Everton	6	+9.9	15.9	29%	1
5	Rogers	Chelsea	5	+10.4	15.4	22%	1
6	Cherki	Manchester City	5	+9.4	14.4	18%	2
7	João Pedro	Chelsea	5	+8.9	13.9	19%	3
8	Evanilson	Bournemouth	5	+8.7	13.7	21%	4
9	Tavernier	Bournemouth	5	+8.7	13.7	21%	0
10	Mbeumo	Manchester United	4	+9.0	13.0	21%	1
11	Calvert-Lewin	Leeds United	3	+10.0	13.0	26%	1
12	B.Fernandes	Manchester United	4	+7.9	11.9	19%	2
13	Groß	Brighton	4	+6.9	10.9	13%	6
14	Havertz	Arsenal	3	+7.6	10.6	14%	0
15	Saka	Arsenal	3	+7.6	10.6	14%	0

Defence

Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected addition from the remaining fixtures; "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.

	Team	GP	CS	+rem	Proj CS	GA	+rem	Proj GA	CS rate	GA/g
1	Arsenal	38	7	+11.6	18.6	5	+25.0	30.0	49%	0.79
2	Brighton	38	7	+10.3	17.3	7	+28.7	35.7	45%	0.94
3	Liverpool	38	4	+8.8	12.8	10	+33.6	43.6	34%	1.15
4	Tottenham	38	4	+8.2	12.2	11	+35.3	46.3	32%	1.22
5	Manchester City	38	3	+9.2	12.2	13	+32.1	45.1	32%	1.19
6	Leeds United	38	4	+7.8	11.8	8	+37.5	45.5	31%	1.20
7	Everton	38	4	+7.1	11.1	10	+39.6	49.6	29%	1.31
8	Brentford	38	3	+8.1	11.1	11	+36.5	47.5	29%	1.25
9	Bournemouth	38	3	+7.6	10.6	14	+38.4	52.4	28%	1.38
10	Chelsea	38	2	+7.8	9.8	16	+36.6	52.6	26%	1.38
11	Aston Villa	38	2	+7.7	9.7	17	+37.4	54.4	26%	1.43
12	Sunderland	38	3	+6.7	9.7	17	+42.6	59.6	25%	1.57
13	Fulham	38	3	+6.2	9.2	12	+44.0	56.0	24%	1.47
14	Hull City	38	3	+5.2	8.2	11	+48.8	59.8	22%	1.57
15	Nottingham Forest	38	1	+7.1	8.1	13	+40.4	53.4	21%	1.41
16	Newcastle United	38	2	+5.9	7.9	16	+45.2	61.2	21%	1.61
17	Crystal Palace	38	1	+6.0	7.0	24	+44.9	68.9	18%	1.81
18	Manchester United	38	0	+6.6	6.6	19	+42.2	61.2	17%	1.61
19	Coventry City	38	1	+4.9	5.9	19	+50.2	69.2	16%	1.82
20	Ipswich Town	38	0	+5.2	5.2	20	+49.6	69.6	14%	1.83