World Cup 2026 Standings & Projections

48 teams · 104 matches · June 11 – July 19, 2026 · United States, Mexico & Canada · 99 of 104 matches played · updated July 16, 2026
🇪🇸 Spain 32%🇫🇷 France 26%🇦🇷 Argentina 22%🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 18%🇨🇭 Switzerland 3%

Today's matches

No matches today. Next up: knockout fixture (Third place) on Saturday, July 18.

Tournament odds — all 48 teams

Probability of reaching each stage. "Advance" is qualification for the round of 32 by any route (top two or one of the eight best third-placed teams). "Rtg" is the team's strength rating. Cell shading is scaled to the best team in each column.

TeamGrpRtgxPts AdvanceR16QFSFFinalChampion
1🇪🇸 SpainH21257.0100%100%100%100%54%32%
2🇫🇷 FranceI20709.0100%100%100%100%46%26%
3🇦🇷 ArgentinaJ20889.0100%100%100%74%44%22%
4🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EnglandL20327.0100%100%100%100%46%18%
5🇨🇭 SwitzerlandB18757.0100%100%100%26%10%3%
6🇲🇦 MoroccoC18727.0100%100%100%
7🇧🇪 BelgiumG19105.0100%100%100%
8🇳🇴 NorwayI18846.0100%100%100%
9🇲🇽 MexicoA18749.0100%100%
10🇿🇦 South AfricaA15624.0100%
11🇰🇷 South KoreaA17593.0
12🇨🇿 CzechiaA17321.0
13🇨🇦 CanadaB17814.0100%100%
14🇧🇦 BosniaB16284.0100%
15🇶🇦 QatarB15131.0
16🇧🇷 BrazilC19987.0100%100%
17🇭🇹 HaitiC15290.0
18🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 ScotlandC17543.0
19🇺🇸 USAD17956.0100%100%
20🇵🇾 ParaguayD17834.0100%100%
21🇦🇺 AustraliaD17514.0100%
22🇹🇷 TurkeyD18763.0
23🇩🇪 GermanyE19506.0100%
24🇨🇼 CuracaoE14671.0
25🇨🇮 Ivory CoastE17196.0100%
26🇪🇨 EcuadorE18864.0100%
27🇳🇱 NetherlandsF19547.0100%
28🇯🇵 JapanF18925.0100%
29🇸🇪 SwedenF17384.0100%
30🇹🇳 TunisiaF16480.0
31🇪🇬 EgyptG17195.0100%100%
32🇮🇷 IranG17563.0
33🇳🇿 New ZealandG15551.0
34🇨🇻 Cape VerdeH15833.0100%
35🇸🇦 Saudi ArabiaH15882.0
36🇺🇾 UruguayH18802.0
37🇸🇳 SenegalI18693.0100%
38🇮🇶 IraqI16210.0
39🇩🇿 AlgeriaJ17564.0100%
40🇦🇹 AustriaJ18124.0100%
41🇯🇴 JordanJ16420.0
42🇵🇹 PortugalK19975.0100%100%
43🇨🇩 DR CongoK16574.0100%
44🇺🇿 UzbekistanK16760.0
45🇨🇴 ColombiaK19467.0100%100%
46🇭🇷 CroatiaL18956.0100%
47🇬🇭 GhanaL15574.0100%
48🇵🇦 PanamaL17010.0

Most likely bracket

The single most probable path through the tournament. Group order and third-place slots (FIFA's Annex C table) come from the simulations; the knockout winners are then chosen by a dynamic program that maximizes the joint probability of every game in the bracket — the globally most-likely complete bracket, not a round-by-round chain of local favorites. Percentages are each side's chance of winning that specific matchup (extra time and penalties included), using each team's rating updated for its results so far — so the bracket reflects in-tournament form, consistent with the odds board. It is a best single guess, not a forecast — the odds board above is the authoritative probability view.

Two different questions: this most-likely path crowns Argentina, while the odds board’s outright favorite is Spain. The most probable single bracket and the team that wins most often across all simulations need not agree — a team can be favored in the one likeliest story yet reach the final less often than a rival who wins more titles overall.

Round of 32
M74 · Jun 29 · FT
🇩🇪 Germany4
🇵🇾 Paraguay5
M77 · Jun 30 · FT
🇫🇷 France3
🇸🇪 Sweden0
M73 · Jun 28 · FT
🇿🇦 South Africa0
🇨🇦 Canada1
M75 · Jun 29 · FT
🇳🇱 Netherlands3
🇲🇦 Morocco4
M83 · Jul 2 · FT
🇵🇹 Portugal2
🇭🇷 Croatia1
M84 · Jul 2 · FT
🇪🇸 Spain3
🇦🇹 Austria0
M81 · Jul 1 · FT
🇺🇸 USA2
🇧🇦 Bosnia0
M82 · Jul 1 · FT
🇧🇪 Belgium3
🇸🇳 Senegal2
Round of 16
M89 · Jul 4 · FT
🇵🇾 Paraguay0
🇫🇷 France1
M90 · Jul 4 · FT
🇨🇦 Canada0
🇲🇦 Morocco3
M93 · Jul 6 · FT
🇵🇹 Portugal0
🇪🇸 Spain1
M94 · Jul 6 · FT
🇺🇸 USA1
🇧🇪 Belgium4
Quarter-final
M97 · Jul 9 · FT
🇫🇷 France2
🇲🇦 Morocco0
M98 · Jul 10 · FT
🇪🇸 Spain2
🇧🇪 Belgium1
Semi-final
M101 · Jul 14 · Arlington
🇫🇷 France47%
🇪🇸 Spain53%
Final
Most-likely-path champion
🇦🇷 Argentina
M104 · Jul 19 · East Rutherford
🇪🇸 Spain49%
🇦🇷 Argentina51%
Semi-final
M102 · Jul 15 · Atlanta
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England38%
🇦🇷 Argentina62%
Quarter-final
M99 · Jul 11 · FT
🇳🇴 Norway1
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2
M100 · Jul 11 · Kansas City
🇦🇷 Argentina78%
🇨🇭 Switzerland22%
Round of 16
M91 · Jul 5 · FT
🇧🇷 Brazil1
🇳🇴 Norway2
M92 · Jul 5 · FT
🇲🇽 Mexico2
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England3
M95 · Jul 7 · FT
🇦🇷 Argentina3
🇪🇬 Egypt2
M96 · Jul 7 · FT
🇨🇭 Switzerland4
🇨🇴 Colombia3
Round of 32
M76 · Jun 29 · FT
🇧🇷 Brazil2
🇯🇵 Japan1
M78 · Jun 30 · FT
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast1
🇳🇴 Norway2
M79 · Jun 30 · FT
🇲🇽 Mexico2
🇪🇨 Ecuador0
M80 · Jul 1 · FT
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England2
🇨🇩 DR Congo1
M86 · Jul 3 · FT
🇦🇷 Argentina3
🇨🇻 Cape Verde2
M88 · Jul 3 · FT
🇦🇺 Australia3
🇪🇬 Egypt5
M85 · Jul 2 · FT
🇨🇭 Switzerland2
🇩🇿 Algeria0
M87 · Jul 3 · FT
🇨🇴 Colombia1
🇬🇭 Ghana0

Third-place match (July 18, Miami Gardens): 🇫🇷 France vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England — France favored at 60%.

Dark horses

Best semi-final odds among teams outside the blended-rating top ten.

🇨🇭 Switzerland
Group B · Rtg 1875 · FIFA #19
Semi-final26%
Final10%
Champion3%
🇲🇽 Mexico
Group A · Rtg 1874 · FIFA #14
Semi-final
Final
Champion
🇿🇦 South Africa
Group A · Rtg 1562 · FIFA #60
Semi-final
Final
Champion
🇰🇷 South Korea
Group A · Rtg 1759 · FIFA #25
Semi-final
Final
Champion
🇨🇿 Czechia
Group A · Rtg 1732 · FIFA #39
Semi-final
Final
Champion

Most likely finals

Pairing (July 19, MetLife Stadium)Probability
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v 🇪🇸 Spain25%
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇪🇸 Spain24%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v 🇫🇷 France21%
🇦🇷 Argentina v 🇫🇷 France21%
🇪🇸 Spain v 🇨🇭 Switzerland5%
🇫🇷 France v 🇨🇭 Switzerland4%

Group projections & match predictions

Played matches show the final score (the dimmed bar is the pre-match forecast); standings sort by actual points, and all probability columns are conditioned on results so far. Standings columns split into finish in group — the probability of placing first, second, or third — and advance, where the “3rd” column is the chance of taking one of the eight best third-placed slots and “tot” is the chance of reaching the Round of 32 by any route. Every match shows win/draw/win probabilities and the single most likely scoreline (with its probability). Bars read left-to-right as first-listed team / draw / second-listed team. Host nations get a home-Elo bump in their own country — note Mexico's group games are all in Mexico, while Group A's other three teams meet on neutral ground.

first-listed team wins draw second-listed team wins
Group A
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇲🇽 Mexico187439+6100%100%
🇿🇦 South Africa156234-1100%100%
🇰🇷 South Korea175933-1100%
🇨🇿 Czechia173231-4
Jun 11🇲🇽 Mexicov🇿🇦 South Africa
80%
17%
2–0FT
Jun 11🇰🇷 South Koreav🇨🇿 Czechia
41%
26%
33%
2–1FT
Jun 18🇨🇿 Czechiav🇿🇦 South Africa
56%
26%
18%
1–1FT
Jun 18🇲🇽 Mexicov🇰🇷 South Korea
65%
23%
12%
1–0FT
Jun 24🇨🇿 Czechiav🇲🇽 Mexico
10%
20%
70%
0–3FT
Jun 24🇿🇦 South Africav🇰🇷 South Korea
16%
26%
58%
1–0FT
Group B
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇨🇭 Switzerland187537+4100%100%
🇨🇦 Canada178134+5100%100%
🇧🇦 Bosnia162834-1100%100%100%
🇶🇦 Qatar151331-8
Jun 12🇨🇦 Canadav🇧🇦 Bosnia
65%
24%
10%
1–1FT
Jun 13🇶🇦 Qatarv🇨🇭 Switzerland
11%
86%
1–1FT
Jun 18🇨🇭 Switzerlandv🇧🇦 Bosnia
71%
19%
10%
4–1FT
Jun 18🇨🇦 Canadav🇶🇦 Qatar
81%
16%
6–0FT
Jun 24🇨🇭 Switzerlandv🇨🇦 Canada
35%
30%
35%
2–1FT
Jun 24🇧🇦 Bosniav🇶🇦 Qatar
55%
25%
20%
3–1FT
Group C
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇧🇷 Brazil199837+6100%100%
🇲🇦 Morocco187237+3100%100%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland175433-3100%
🇭🇹 Haiti152930-6
Jun 13🇭🇹 Haitiv🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland
13%
20%
67%
0–1FT
Jun 13🇧🇷 Brazilv🇲🇦 Morocco
51%
28%
22%
1–1FT
Jun 19🇧🇷 Brazilv🇭🇹 Haiti
93%
3–0FT
Jun 19🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotlandv🇲🇦 Morocco
19%
27%
53%
0–1FT
Jun 24🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotlandv🇧🇷 Brazil
9%
17%
74%
0–3FT
Jun 24🇲🇦 Moroccov🇭🇹 Haiti
79%
16%
4–2FT
Group D
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇺🇸 USA179536+4100%100%
🇦🇺 Australia175134+0100%100%
🇵🇾 Paraguay178334-2100%100%100%
🇹🇷 Turkey187633-2
Jun 12🇺🇸 USAv🇵🇾 Paraguay
50%
27%
23%
4–1FT
Jun 13🇦🇺 Australiav🇹🇷 Turkey
23%
26%
51%
2–0FT
Jun 19🇹🇷 Turkeyv🇵🇾 Paraguay
45%
28%
27%
0–1FT
Jun 19🇺🇸 USAv🇦🇺 Australia
56%
25%
19%
2–0FT
Jun 25🇹🇷 Turkeyv🇺🇸 USA
33%
25%
42%
3–2FT
Jun 25🇵🇾 Paraguayv🇦🇺 Australia
39%
32%
29%
0–0FT
Group E
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇩🇪 Germany195036+6100%100%
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast171936+2100%100%
🇪🇨 Ecuador188634+0100%100%100%
🇨🇼 Curacao146731-8
Jun 14🇨🇮 Ivory Coastv🇪🇨 Ecuador
18%
31%
51%
1–0FT
Jun 14🇩🇪 Germanyv🇨🇼 Curacao
94%
7–1FT
Jun 20🇩🇪 Germanyv🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
67%
22%
12%
2–1FT
Jun 20🇪🇨 Ecuadorv🇨🇼 Curacao
85%
13%
0–0FT
Jun 25🇨🇼 Curacaov🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
10%
21%
69%
0–2FT
Jun 25🇪🇨 Ecuadorv🇩🇪 Germany
27%
29%
44%
2–1FT
Group F
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇳🇱 Netherlands195437+6100%100%
🇯🇵 Japan189235+4100%100%
🇸🇪 Sweden173834+0100%100%100%
🇹🇳 Tunisia164830-10
Jun 14🇳🇱 Netherlandsv🇯🇵 Japan
43%
27%
30%
2–2FT
Jun 14🇸🇪 Swedenv🇹🇳 Tunisia
50%
26%
24%
5–1FT
Jun 20🇳🇱 Netherlandsv🇸🇪 Sweden
72%
17%
12%
5–1FT
Jun 20🇹🇳 Tunisiav🇯🇵 Japan
10%
23%
68%
0–4FT
Jun 25🇯🇵 Japanv🇸🇪 Sweden
62%
22%
17%
1–1FT
Jun 25🇹🇳 Tunisiav🇳🇱 Netherlands
17%
77%
1–3FT
Group G
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇧🇪 Belgium191035+4100%100%
🇪🇬 Egypt171935+2100%100%
🇮🇷 Iran175633+0100%
🇳🇿 New Zealand155531-6
Jun 15🇮🇷 Iranv🇳🇿 New Zealand
60%
24%
16%
2–2FT
Jun 15🇧🇪 Belgiumv🇪🇬 Egypt
61%
25%
14%
1–1FT
Jun 21🇧🇪 Belgiumv🇮🇷 Iran
62%
22%
16%
0–0FT
Jun 21🇳🇿 New Zealandv🇪🇬 Egypt
20%
29%
52%
1–3FT
Jun 26🇪🇬 Egyptv🇮🇷 Iran
30%
31%
38%
1–1FT
Jun 26🇳🇿 New Zealandv🇧🇪 Belgium
13%
84%
1–5FT
Group H
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇪🇸 Spain212537+5100%100%
🇨🇻 Cape Verde158333+0100%100%
🇺🇾 Uruguay188032-1100%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia158832-4
Jun 15🇸🇦 Saudi Arabiav🇺🇾 Uruguay
26%
66%
1–1FT
Jun 15🇪🇸 Spainv🇨🇻 Cape Verde
93%
0–0FT
Jun 21🇺🇾 Uruguayv🇨🇻 Cape Verde
70%
22%
2–2FT
Jun 21🇪🇸 Spainv🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
90%
9%
4–0FT
Jun 26🇨🇻 Cape Verdev🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
31%
33%
36%
0–0FT
Jun 26🇺🇾 Uruguayv🇪🇸 Spain
11%
23%
65%
0–1FT
Group I
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇫🇷 France207039+8100%100%
🇳🇴 Norway188436+1100%100%
🇸🇳 Senegal186933+2100%100%100%
🇮🇶 Iraq162130-11
Jun 16🇫🇷 Francev🇸🇳 Senegal
63%
23%
14%
3–1FT
Jun 16🇮🇶 Iraqv🇳🇴 Norway
9%
19%
72%
1–4FT
Jun 22🇳🇴 Norwayv🇸🇳 Senegal
41%
26%
33%
3–2FT
Jun 22🇫🇷 Francev🇮🇶 Iraq
86%
12%
3–0FT
Jun 26🇳🇴 Norwayv🇫🇷 France
16%
20%
64%
1–4FT
Jun 26🇸🇳 Senegalv🇮🇶 Iraq
64%
25%
11%
5–0FT
Group J
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇦🇷 Argentina208839+7100%100%
🇦🇹 Austria181234+0100%100%
🇩🇿 Algeria175634-2100%100%100%
🇯🇴 Jordan164230-5
Jun 16🇦🇷 Argentinav🇩🇿 Algeria
78%
17%
3–0FT
Jun 16🇦🇹 Austriav🇯🇴 Jordan
64%
22%
14%
3–1FT
Jun 22🇦🇷 Argentinav🇦🇹 Austria
70%
21%
9%
2–0FT
Jun 22🇯🇴 Jordanv🇩🇿 Algeria
21%
25%
54%
1–2FT
Jun 27🇩🇿 Algeriav🇦🇹 Austria
27%
28%
45%
3–3FT
Jun 27🇯🇴 Jordanv🇦🇷 Argentina
9%
90%
1–3FT
Group K
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🇨🇴 Colombia194637+3100%100%
🇵🇹 Portugal199735+5100%100%
🇨🇩 DR Congo165734+1100%100%100%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan167630-9
Jun 17🇵🇹 Portugalv🇨🇩 DR Congo
79%
17%
1–1FT
Jun 17🇺🇿 Uzbekistanv🇨🇴 Colombia
20%
71%
1–3FT
Jun 23🇵🇹 Portugalv🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
78%
17%
5–0FT
Jun 23🇨🇴 Colombiav🇨🇩 DR Congo
72%
20%
1–0FT
Jun 27🇨🇴 Colombiav🇵🇹 Portugal
31%
25%
44%
0–0FT
Jun 27🇨🇩 DR Congov🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
31%
35%
34%
3–1FT
Group L
TeamRtgPPtsGD Finish in groupAdvance
1st2nd3rd3rdTot
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England203237+4100%100%
🇭🇷 Croatia189536+0100%100%
🇬🇭 Ghana155734+0100%100%100%
🇵🇦 Panama170130-4
Jun 17🇬🇭 Ghanav🇵🇦 Panama
22%
26%
52%
1–0FT
Jun 17🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Englandv🇭🇷 Croatia
55%
25%
20%
4–2FT
Jun 23🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Englandv🇬🇭 Ghana
87%
11%
0–0FT
Jun 23🇵🇦 Panamav🇭🇷 Croatia
13%
20%
67%
0–1FT
Jun 27🇵🇦 Panamav🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
15%
80%
0–2FT
Jun 27🇭🇷 Croatiav🇬🇭 Ghana
79%
16%
2–1FT