Arsenal take their Sunderland penalty complaint to Pro RefArsenal contacted Howard Webb on Monday over the penalty given against Ezri Konsa at the Stadium of Light, which David Raya's save kept from costing them the game. — The Mirror
1 matches across the next gameweek. The bar is the win / draw / win split, xG the expected goals per side, and the likely score the model's best guess at the result, with its probability.
Gameweek 4Sep 141 match
Date
Home
Away
Home win · Draw · Away win
xG
Likely score
Sep 14
Leeds United
vs
Newcastle United
41%
27%
32%
1.32 – 1.12
1–0(11%)
Featured match
Leeds host Newcastle in a fixture with stakes on both sides — the Peacocks fighting for a Champions League place (13% qualifying), the Magpies fighting for a Champions League place (29% qualifying). The model leans toward the Peacocks (41% home win, 27% draw, 32% away), with 1–0 the likeliest scoreline at 11%.
Gameweek 4 · 2026-09-14
Leeds
11th5 ptsxG 1.32
FormDDW
vs
Newcastle
10th5 ptsxG 1.12
FormDWD
Scoreline probabilities
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
9.0%
9.5%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
1
10.9%
12.9%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
2
7.6%
8.5%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
3
3.3%
3.7%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
5
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6+
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Likeliest scorelines if Leeds win (Leeds–Newcastle)1–010.9%2–18.5%2–07.6%
Match outcome
Leeds win
40.5%
Draw
27.3%
Newcastle win
32.2%
First meeting this season
The clubs have met 30 times in the Premier League era — Leeds 7, draws 10, Newcastle 13 — with Leeds 3–5–7 as hosts. The biggest shock since matches were priced: Newcastle’s 1-3 win in this fixture in January 2001, a 20% chance on the day.
Projected final table
Title (1st)Champions League (top 5)Europa League (6th)Conference League (7th)Relegation
England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European
Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the
standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th
slots down one place.
How each race has moved. Hover a line to follow one club; expand a card for the full field.
Title race
top 5 of 7 in the race
Champions League
top 5 of 13 in the race
Relegation battle
top 5 of 14 in the race
Position probability heatmap
Chance of each final position, teams sorted by expected points. Cells are percentages; blanks are under 0.5%.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Arsenal
58
33
7
2
1
Man City
36
42
12
5
2
1
0
Chelsea
3
9
20
15
11
9
7
6
4
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
Liverpool
1
6
18
17
15
11
8
7
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
Man United
3
11
14
14
13
11
8
7
6
4
3
2
1
1
1
Brighton
1
3
11
13
12
11
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
1
Newcastle
2
7
9
10
10
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
Brentford
1
4
7
9
9
10
10
10
9
8
7
6
4
3
2
1
1
Everton
2
4
6
7
8
10
10
9
10
8
7
6
5
3
2
1
1
Leeds
3
5
5
7
8
9
10
9
9
9
8
6
5
4
3
2
1
Forest
2
3
4
6
7
8
8
10
9
9
8
8
6
5
3
2
1
Tottenham
2
3
4
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
4
3
1
Bournemouth
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
9
8
7
5
4
2
Aston Villa
1
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
6
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
6
2
Hull
1
1
1
2
3
3
5
5
6
7
9
10
11
11
11
10
3
Palace
1
1
2
3
3
4
6
7
9
11
12
13
13
10
4
Sunderland
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
7
9
11
12
14
14
11
3
Fulham
1
1
1
2
3
4
5
8
9
12
14
17
16
7
Ipswich
0
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
7
9
12
16
23
13
Coventry
1
1
1
2
4
8
16
65
Golden boot
Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is the goals still expected over the remaining fixtures; "Share" is the player's share of his club's goals. Bar length compares to the projected leader.
Player
Team
Goals
+rem
Proj total
Share
A
1
Haaland
Manchester City
4
+25.7
29.7
39%
0
2
Rogers
Chelsea
3
+13.4
16.4
22%
1
3
Saka
Arsenal
3
+13.0
16.0
19%
0
4
Isak
Liverpool
3
+12.4
15.4
22%
0
5
B.Fernandes
Manchester United
3
+12.1
15.1
20%
1
6
Tavernier
Bournemouth
3
+10.6
13.6
22%
0
7
João Pedro
Chelsea
3
+10.5
13.5
18%
3
8
Schade
Brentford
3
+10.3
13.3
20%
0
9
Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
1
+12.2
13.2
27%
2
10
Mbeumo
Manchester United
2
+11.1
13.1
19%
1
11
Calvert-Lewin
Leeds United
1
+11.7
12.7
25%
0
12
Palmer
Chelsea
2
+10.5
12.5
18%
2
13
Havertz
Arsenal
2
+9.6
11.6
14%
0
14
Ødegaard
Arsenal
2
+9.6
11.6
14%
0
15
Cherki
Manchester City
2
+9.6
11.6
14%
2
Defence
Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected addition from the remaining fixtures; "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.