Opponent, venue and clean-sheet probability, sorted by average over the window you choose.
The small grey number is FPL’s own 1–5 difficulty rating for that fixture. A purple outline marks a fixture where the model and that rating disagree by two bands or more — hover it for both verdicts.
| Team | Avg | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 | GW15 | GW16 | GW17 | GW18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 41% | Hull (A)241% | Newcastle (H)341% | Bournemouth (A)431% | Forest (A)241% | Everton (H)345% | Ipswich (H)246% | Fulham (A)332% | Tottenham (A)329% |
| Arsenal | 38% | Newcastle (A)339% | Man City (H)433% | Brentford (A)434% | Tottenham (A)337% | Bournemouth (H)339% | Man United (H)345% | Palace (A)244% | Fulham (A)341% |
| Man City | 34% | Fulham (H)243% | Arsenal (A)520% | Leeds (H)342% | Brentford (A)423% | Chelsea (H)430% | Hull (H)248% | Newcastle (A)329% | Everton (A)331% |
| Tottenham | 33% | Ipswich (H)235% | Sunderland (A)339% | Fulham (H)238% | Arsenal (H)420% | Hull (A)242% | Liverpool (A)426% | Bournemouth (H)323% | Brighton (H)419% |
| Liverpool | 33% | Man United (H)334% | Everton (A)328% | Sunderland (H)240% | Chelsea (A)422% | Leeds (H)339% | Tottenham (H)332% | Hull (A)239% | Aston Villa (A)325% |
| Aston Villa | 31% | Sunderland (H)236% | Ipswich (A)229% | Everton (H)335% | Palace (H)236% | Coventry (A)230% | Chelsea (A)417% | Leeds (H)336% | Liverpool (H)421% |
| Bournemouth | 30% | Forest (H)333% | Fulham (A)321% | Brighton (H)424% | Hull (H)246% | Arsenal (A)511% | Coventry (H)247% | Tottenham (A)318% | Palace (A)224% |
| Leeds | 29% | Chelsea (A)417% | Coventry (H)245% | Man City (A)510% | Ipswich (H)240% | Liverpool (A)418% | Fulham (H)244% | Aston Villa (A)319% | Hull (A)232% |
| Forest | 27% | Bournemouth (A)421% | Chelsea (H)427% | Hull (A)232% | Brighton (H)420% | Sunderland (A)331% | Everton (H)334% | Man United (A)315% | Newcastle (A)321% |
| Brentford | 27% | Everton (H)337% | Man United (A)315% | Arsenal (H)426% | Man City (H)426% | Fulham (A)322% | Newcastle (H)338% | Ipswich (A)229% | Coventry (A)229% |
| Chelsea | 26% | Leeds (H)333% | Forest (A)231% | Palace (H)234% | Liverpool (H)420% | Man City (A)513% | Aston Villa (H)324% | Coventry (A)233% | Ipswich (A)234% |
| Everton | 25% | Brentford (A)423% | Liverpool (H)419% | Aston Villa (A)324% | Fulham (H)235% | Brighton (A)416% | Forest (A)235% | Sunderland (H)232% | Man City (H)418% |
| Sunderland | 24% | Aston Villa (A)316% | Tottenham (H)330% | Liverpool (A)414% | Newcastle (A)318% | Forest (H)330% | Palace (H)236% | Everton (A)319% | Man United (A)312% |
| Palace | 24% | Coventry (A)225% | Hull (H)235% | Chelsea (A)414% | Aston Villa (A)317% | Man United (H)322% | Sunderland (A)329% | Arsenal (H)414% | Bournemouth (H)317% |
| Man United | 23% | Liverpool (A)417% | Brentford (H)324% | Newcastle (A)322% | Coventry (H)237% | Palace (A)226% | Arsenal (A)512% | Forest (H)324% | Sunderland (H)230% |
| Newcastle | 20% | Arsenal (H)415% | Brighton (A)414% | Man United (H)322% | Sunderland (H)228% | Ipswich (A)228% | Brentford (A)416% | Man City (H)414% | Forest (H)321% |
| Fulham | 19% | Man City (A)511% | Bournemouth (H)321% | Tottenham (A)318% | Everton (A)322% | Brentford (H)326% | Leeds (A)317% | Brighton (H)418% | Arsenal (H)419% |
| Coventry | 19% | Palace (H)227% | Leeds (A)316% | Ipswich (H)226% | Man United (A)310% | Aston Villa (H)317% | Bournemouth (A)415% | Chelsea (H)416% | Brentford (H)320% |
| Ipswich | 16% | Tottenham (A)312% | Aston Villa (H)319% | Coventry (A)221% | Leeds (A)313% | Newcastle (H)325% | Brighton (A)47% | Brentford (H)321% | Chelsea (H)416% |
| Hull | 16% | Brighton (H)413% | Palace (A)220% | Forest (H)320% | Bournemouth (A)417% | Tottenham (H)319% | Man City (A)58% | Liverpool (H)413% | Leeds (H)325% |
Expected goals per fixture, sorted by average over the window you choose.
Purple outlines mark model–FDR disagreements here too, through the attacking lens.
| Team | Avg | GW11 | GW12 | GW13 | GW14 | GW15 | GW16 | GW17 | GW18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.93 | Hull (A)22.06 | Newcastle (H)32.05 | Bournemouth (A)41.44 | Forest (A)21.61 | Everton (H)31.85 | Ipswich (H)22.60 | Fulham (A)31.74 | Tottenham (A)31.64 |
| Man City | 1.92 | Fulham (H)22.27 | Arsenal (A)51.10 | Leeds (H)32.27 | Brentford (A)41.36 | Chelsea (H)42.00 | Hull (H)22.55 | Newcastle (A)31.96 | Everton (A)31.74 |
| Arsenal | 1.80 | Newcastle (A)31.93 | Man City (H)41.63 | Brentford (A)41.36 | Tottenham (A)31.59 | Bournemouth (H)32.20 | Man United (H)32.09 | Palace (A)21.93 | Fulham (A)31.68 |
| Liverpool | 1.69 | Man United (H)31.78 | Everton (A)31.69 | Sunderland (H)21.98 | Chelsea (A)41.61 | Leeds (H)31.73 | Tottenham (H)31.35 | Hull (A)22.07 | Aston Villa (A)31.54 |
| Aston Villa | 1.66 | Sunderland (H)21.84 | Ipswich (A)21.69 | Everton (H)31.45 | Palace (H)21.77 | Coventry (A)21.79 | Chelsea (A)41.42 | Leeds (H)31.65 | Liverpool (H)41.39 |
| Chelsea | 1.59 | Leeds (H)31.77 | Forest (A)21.34 | Palace (H)21.96 | Liverpool (H)41.53 | Man City (A)51.21 | Aston Villa (H)31.75 | Coventry (A)21.86 | Ipswich (A)21.81 |
| Man United | 1.51 | Liverpool (A)41.07 | Brentford (H)31.87 | Newcastle (A)31.53 | Coventry (H)22.25 | Palace (A)21.51 | Arsenal (A)50.81 | Forest (H)31.88 | Sunderland (H)22.12 |
| Bournemouth | 1.48 | Forest (H)31.57 | Fulham (A)31.56 | Brighton (H)41.18 | Hull (H)21.75 | Arsenal (A)50.95 | Coventry (H)21.89 | Tottenham (A)31.46 | Palace (A)21.77 |
| Tottenham | 1.46 | Ipswich (H)22.06 | Sunderland (A)31.23 | Fulham (H)21.72 | Arsenal (H)40.98 | Hull (A)21.66 | Liverpool (A)41.13 | Bournemouth (H)31.73 | Brighton (H)41.24 |
| Brentford | 1.45 | Everton (H)31.50 | Man United (A)31.43 | Arsenal (H)41.08 | Man City (H)41.47 | Fulham (A)31.33 | Newcastle (H)31.86 | Ipswich (A)21.54 | Coventry (A)21.59 |
| Leeds | 1.44 | Chelsea (A)41.10 | Coventry (H)21.92 | Man City (A)50.87 | Ipswich (H)22.06 | Liverpool (A)40.93 | Fulham (H)21.76 | Aston Villa (A)31.02 | Hull (A)21.37 |
| Newcastle | 1.24 | Arsenal (H)40.93 | Brighton (A)40.90 | Man United (H)31.53 | Sunderland (H)21.74 | Ipswich (A)21.37 | Brentford (A)40.96 | Man City (H)41.24 | Forest (H)31.54 |
| Palace | 1.23 | Coventry (A)21.30 | Hull (H)21.58 | Chelsea (A)41.07 | Aston Villa (A)31.02 | Man United (H)31.36 | Sunderland (A)31.03 | Arsenal (H)40.82 | Bournemouth (H)31.44 |
| Forest | 1.17 | Bournemouth (A)41.10 | Chelsea (H)41.16 | Hull (A)21.61 | Brighton (H)40.90 | Sunderland (A)31.21 | Everton (H)31.04 | Man United (A)31.45 | Newcastle (A)31.54 |
| Everton | 1.12 | Brentford (A)41.00 | Liverpool (H)41.26 | Aston Villa (A)31.06 | Fulham (H)21.53 | Brighton (A)40.80 | Forest (A)21.08 | Sunderland (H)21.66 | Man City (H)41.18 |
| Fulham | 1.12 | Man City (A)50.85 | Bournemouth (H)31.56 | Tottenham (A)30.96 | Everton (A)31.04 | Brentford (H)31.49 | Leeds (A)30.81 | Brighton (H)41.13 | Arsenal (H)40.90 |
| Coventry | 1.11 | Palace (H)21.39 | Leeds (A)30.79 | Ipswich (H)21.55 | Man United (A)30.98 | Aston Villa (H)31.20 | Bournemouth (A)40.75 | Chelsea (H)41.11 | Brentford (H)31.25 |
| Ipswich | 1.10 | Tottenham (A)31.05 | Aston Villa (H)31.23 | Coventry (A)21.36 | Leeds (A)30.91 | Newcastle (H)31.27 | Brighton (A)40.78 | Brentford (H)31.23 | Chelsea (H)41.09 |
| Sunderland | 1.10 | Aston Villa (A)31.02 | Tottenham (H)30.94 | Liverpool (A)40.91 | Newcastle (A)31.27 | Forest (H)31.18 | Palace (H)21.25 | Everton (A)31.13 | Man United (A)31.20 |
| Hull | 0.91 | Brighton (H)40.89 | Palace (A)21.05 | Forest (H)31.14 | Bournemouth (A)40.78 | Tottenham (H)30.88 | Man City (A)50.73 | Liverpool (H)40.95 | Leeds (H)31.13 |
FPL’s 1–5 difficulty next to the model’s own view of the same fixture on the same scale. Gaps of two or more are listed here and ringed in the grids above — these are the fixtures where planning by FDR alone is most likely to mislead.
| GW | Fixture | Lens | FPL says | Model says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW15 | Man City v Chelsea (H) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 1 (2.00 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Ipswich v Tottenham (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (12% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Arsenal v Newcastle (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (39% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Brentford v Everton (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (37% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Sunderland v Aston Villa (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (16% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Arsenal v Newcastle (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 1 (1.93 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Liverpool v Man United (H) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 1 (1.78 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Chelsea v Leeds (H) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 1 (1.77 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Sunderland v Aston Villa (A) | Attacking (xG) | 3 | 5 (1.02 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW12 | Tottenham v Sunderland (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (39% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW12 | Arsenal v Man City (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 4 | 2 (33% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW12 | Hull v Palace (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 2 | 4 (20% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |