Opponent, venue and clean-sheet probability, sorted by average over the window you choose.
The small grey number is FPL’s own 1–5 difficulty rating for that fixture. A purple outline marks a fixture where the model and that rating disagree by two bands or more — hover it for both verdicts.
| Team | Avg | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 45% | Brighton (A)338% | Leeds (H)248% | Forest (A)346% | Everton (H)349% | Liverpool (A)434% | Hull (H)253% | Newcastle (A)331% | Man City (H)433% |
| Man City | 39% | Sunderland (H)251% | Liverpool (A)427% | Ipswich (H)250% | Aston Villa (A)433% | Brighton (H)234% | Forest (A)339% | Fulham (H)254% | Arsenal (A)520% |
| Newcastle | 33% | Hull (H)235% | Coventry (A)243% | Aston Villa (H)328% | Palace (A)334% | Everton (H)330% | Fulham (A)329% | Arsenal (H)416% | Brighton (A)325% |
| Tottenham | 28% | Aston Villa (H)332% | Man United (A)418% | Coventry (H)242% | Chelsea (A)421% | Palace (H)329% | Leeds (A)326% | Ipswich (H)235% | Sunderland (A)333% |
| Everton | 28% | Ipswich (H)234% | Hull (A)237% | Chelsea (H)417% | Arsenal (A)515% | Newcastle (A)320% | Coventry (H)243% | Brentford (A)324% | Liverpool (H)418% |
| Forest | 27% | Coventry (H)244% | Palace (A)329% | Arsenal (H)420% | Ipswich (A)233% | Brentford (A)319% | Man City (H)419% | Bournemouth (A)323% | Chelsea (H)420% |
| Fulham | 26% | Man United (H)417% | Ipswich (A)231% | Hull (H)230% | Coventry (A)236% | Aston Villa (A)420% | Newcastle (H)224% | Man City (A)510% | Bournemouth (H)319% |
| Man United | 26% | Fulham (A)327% | Tottenham (H)326% | Leeds (A)326% | Bournemouth (H)324% | Chelsea (A)420% | Aston Villa (H)331% | Liverpool (A)421% | Brentford (H)327% |
| Chelsea | 25% | Brentford (A)323% | Bournemouth (H)324% | Everton (A)326% | Tottenham (H)326% | Man United (H)421% | Sunderland (A)333% | Leeds (H)230% | Forest (A)332% |
| Liverpool | 25% | Bournemouth (A)326% | Man City (H)422% | Brentford (A)322% | Brighton (H)226% | Arsenal (H)424% | Palace (A)332% | Man United (H)427% | Everton (A)324% |
| Leeds | 25% | Palace (H)333% | Arsenal (A)511% | Man United (H)424% | Sunderland (A)328% | Bournemouth (A)322% | Tottenham (H)329% | Chelsea (A)416% | Coventry (H)246% |
| Brighton | 24% | Arsenal (H)419% | Sunderland (A)332% | Palace (H)333% | Liverpool (A)420% | Man City (A)513% | Brentford (H)329% | Hull (A)234% | Newcastle (H)232% |
| Brentford | 23% | Chelsea (H)420% | Aston Villa (A)422% | Liverpool (H)421% | Hull (A)231% | Forest (H)326% | Brighton (A)320% | Everton (H)334% | Man United (A)414% |
| Aston Villa | 23% | Tottenham (A)322% | Brentford (H)327% | Newcastle (A)315% | Man City (H)417% | Fulham (H)240% | Man United (A)414% | Sunderland (H)238% | Ipswich (A)234% |
| Bournemouth | 22% | Liverpool (H)417% | Chelsea (A)413% | Sunderland (H)236% | Man United (A)411% | Leeds (H)228% | Ipswich (A)229% | Forest (H)322% | Fulham (A)320% |
| Sunderland | 22% | Man City (A)59% | Brighton (H)221% | Bournemouth (A)318% | Leeds (H)231% | Coventry (A)233% | Chelsea (H)418% | Aston Villa (A)418% | Tottenham (H)327% |
| Coventry | 21% | Forest (A)322% | Newcastle (H)218% | Tottenham (A)318% | Fulham (H)227% | Sunderland (H)225% | Everton (A)315% | Palace (H)319% | Leeds (A)316% |
| Hull | 21% | Newcastle (A)311% | Everton (H)329% | Fulham (A)320% | Brentford (H)324% | Ipswich (H)232% | Arsenal (A)58% | Brighton (H)218% | Palace (A)324% |
| Palace | 20% | Leeds (A)322% | Forest (H)318% | Brighton (A)320% | Newcastle (H)223% | Tottenham (A)324% | Liverpool (H)414% | Coventry (A)237% | Hull (H)230% |
| Ipswich | 18% | Everton (A)316% | Fulham (H)231% | Man City (A)57% | Forest (H)316% | Hull (A)223% | Bournemouth (H)317% | Tottenham (A)318% | Aston Villa (H)322% |
Expected goals per fixture, sorted by average over the window you choose.
Purple outlines mark model–FDR disagreements here too, through the attacking lens.
| Team | Avg | GW5 | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | 2.01 | Sunderland (H)22.44 | Liverpool (A)41.50 | Ipswich (H)22.71 | Aston Villa (A)41.77 | Brighton (H)22.01 | Forest (A)31.65 | Fulham (H)22.31 | Arsenal (A)51.10 |
| Arsenal | 1.87 | Brighton (A)31.63 | Leeds (H)22.21 | Forest (A)31.60 | Everton (H)31.87 | Liverpool (A)41.45 | Hull (H)22.47 | Newcastle (A)31.82 | Man City (H)41.61 |
| Man United | 1.78 | Fulham (A)31.80 | Tottenham (H)31.72 | Leeds (A)31.43 | Bournemouth (H)32.20 | Chelsea (A)41.57 | Aston Villa (H)31.95 | Liverpool (A)41.32 | Brentford (H)31.94 |
| Chelsea | 1.71 | Brentford (A)31.61 | Bournemouth (H)32.01 | Everton (A)31.75 | Tottenham (H)31.57 | Man United (H)41.61 | Sunderland (A)31.71 | Leeds (H)21.81 | Forest (A)31.62 |
| Newcastle | 1.71 | Hull (H)22.17 | Coventry (A)21.70 | Aston Villa (H)31.88 | Palace (A)31.45 | Everton (H)31.61 | Fulham (A)31.43 | Arsenal (H)41.16 | Brighton (A)31.14 |
| Liverpool | 1.55 | Bournemouth (A)31.76 | Man City (H)41.30 | Brentford (A)31.57 | Brighton (H)21.62 | Arsenal (H)41.08 | Palace (A)32.00 | Man United (H)41.58 | Everton (A)31.69 |
| Bournemouth | 1.53 | Liverpool (H)41.37 | Chelsea (A)41.44 | Sunderland (H)21.69 | Man United (A)41.41 | Leeds (H)21.50 | Ipswich (A)21.80 | Forest (H)31.49 | Fulham (A)31.67 |
| Brentford | 1.44 | Chelsea (H)41.48 | Aston Villa (A)41.32 | Liverpool (H)41.53 | Hull (A)21.42 | Forest (H)31.68 | Brighton (A)31.23 | Everton (H)31.43 | Man United (A)41.30 |
| Tottenham | 1.42 | Aston Villa (H)31.48 | Man United (A)41.33 | Coventry (H)21.69 | Chelsea (A)41.35 | Palace (H)31.43 | Leeds (A)31.23 | Ipswich (H)21.74 | Sunderland (A)31.33 |
| Everton | 1.37 | Ipswich (H)21.87 | Hull (A)21.23 | Chelsea (H)41.36 | Arsenal (A)50.71 | Newcastle (A)31.21 | Coventry (H)21.86 | Brentford (A)31.07 | Liverpool (H)41.42 |
| Brighton | 1.36 | Arsenal (H)40.97 | Sunderland (A)31.57 | Palace (H)31.63 | Liverpool (A)41.34 | Man City (A)51.06 | Brentford (H)31.59 | Hull (A)21.72 | Newcastle (H)21.38 |
| Forest | 1.35 | Coventry (H)21.52 | Palace (A)31.72 | Arsenal (H)40.78 | Ipswich (A)21.81 | Brentford (A)31.35 | Man City (H)40.94 | Bournemouth (A)31.51 | Chelsea (H)41.13 |
| Aston Villa | 1.29 | Tottenham (A)31.13 | Brentford (H)31.50 | Newcastle (A)31.26 | Man City (H)41.11 | Fulham (H)21.59 | Man United (A)41.17 | Sunderland (H)21.72 | Ipswich (A)21.50 |
| Fulham | 1.26 | Man United (H)41.31 | Ipswich (A)21.17 | Hull (H)21.63 | Coventry (A)21.29 | Aston Villa (A)40.93 | Newcastle (H)21.24 | Man City (A)50.62 | Bournemouth (H)31.61 |
| Leeds | 1.24 | Palace (H)31.54 | Arsenal (A)50.74 | Man United (H)41.37 | Sunderland (A)31.18 | Bournemouth (A)31.26 | Tottenham (H)31.34 | Chelsea (A)41.21 | Coventry (H)21.84 |
| Palace | 1.15 | Leeds (A)31.11 | Forest (H)31.25 | Brighton (A)31.12 | Newcastle (H)21.08 | Tottenham (A)31.22 | Liverpool (H)41.14 | Coventry (A)21.68 | Hull (H)21.41 |
| Sunderland | 1.10 | Man City (A)50.68 | Brighton (H)21.15 | Bournemouth (A)31.03 | Leeds (H)21.27 | Coventry (A)21.37 | Chelsea (H)41.11 | Aston Villa (A)40.98 | Tottenham (H)31.11 |
| Hull | 1.08 | Newcastle (A)31.05 | Everton (H)31.00 | Fulham (A)31.19 | Brentford (H)31.16 | Ipswich (H)21.46 | Arsenal (A)50.63 | Brighton (H)21.08 | Palace (A)31.21 |
| Ipswich | 1.07 | Everton (A)31.08 | Fulham (H)21.16 | Man City (A)50.70 | Forest (H)31.10 | Hull (A)21.13 | Bournemouth (H)31.23 | Tottenham (A)31.06 | Aston Villa (H)31.09 |
| Coventry | 0.92 | Forest (A)30.82 | Newcastle (H)20.84 | Tottenham (A)30.86 | Fulham (H)21.03 | Sunderland (H)21.11 | Everton (A)30.86 | Palace (H)30.99 | Leeds (A)30.78 |
FPL’s 1–5 difficulty next to the model’s own view of the same fixture on the same scale. Gaps of two or more are listed here and ringed in the grids above — these are the fixtures where planning by FDR alone is most likely to mislead.
| GW | Fixture | Lens | FPL says | Model says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW6 | Coventry v Newcastle (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 2 | 5 (18% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW6 | Coventry v Newcastle (H) | Attacking (xG) | 2 | 5 (0.84 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW8 | Coventry v Fulham (H) | Attacking (xG) | 2 | 5 (1.03 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW8 | Man City v Aston Villa (A) | Attacking (xG) | 4 | 1 (1.77 xG) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW8 | Palace v Newcastle (H) | Attacking (xG) | 2 | 5 (1.08 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW9 | Arsenal v Liverpool (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 4 | 1 (34% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Hull v Brighton (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 2 | 5 (18% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW11 | Hull v Brighton (H) | Attacking (xG) | 2 | 5 (1.08 xG) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW12 | Arsenal v Man City (H) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 4 | 1 (33% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |
| GW5 | Hull v Newcastle (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (11% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW5 | Ipswich v Everton (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 5 (16% CS) | plays harder than FPL rates it |
| GW5 | Arsenal v Brighton (A) | Defensive (clean sheet) | 3 | 1 (38% CS) | looks easier than FPL rates it |